AI x FoW 🤖

July 17, 2023

Hi friends,

For the last few days I’ve been playing around with Threads. It’s cool to see the 7th Twitter copycat finally got some steam. I tried BlueSky and Mastedon, but Threads is an entirely different story—50M downloads in 1 day. We’ll have to wait and see what user retention looks like in 12 months. Does it have a chance, or will it fizzle out?

Robots Are Eating The Job Market

Ten years ago, this economist predicted AI would replace 47% of US jobs by 2023. He now says ChatGPT is the equivalent of Uber disrupting the taxi industry.

The increasing use of generative AI has raised worries about job loss. ChatGPT excels in standardized tests, creating basic websites, and can even write State of the Union speeches. A decade ago, these advancements would have seemed like pure science fiction.

In 2013, economists Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne from Oxford University published a paper predicting that 47% of U.S. employment was at risk of automation. While automation has indeed become prevalent across various industries, Frey believes that we haven't reached the point where nearly half of all workers are being replaced by machines.

Frey points out existing trends that have affected wages, such as the impact of computers on middle-income jobs and the declining income of prime-age men. If ChatGPT succeeds in fostering more competition, it may further contribute to this downward trend.

Drawing a comparison to Uber's disruption of the taxi industry, Frey suggests that while Uber increased the number of people driving for a living, it simultaneously reduced the earnings potential for traditional taxi drivers. Similarly, ChatGPT sparked competition among major tech companies, as evidenced by Google's introduction of its chatbot, Bard, and Microsoft's significant investment in OpenAI.

Recent surveys reveal that workers are concerned about job displacement. 70% of employed Americans who are familiar with ChatGPT have used it for work-related tasks, and over half of the workers say their companies are considering implementing ChatGPT. Opinions on the future impact vary: 40% fear job loss, 60% believe AI will enhance productivity, and 38% worry about diminished value in the workplace.

Experts suggest that workers should focus on developing soft skills that AI currently lacks, such as leadership, empathy, listening, and problem-solving. Actively assessing one's current job responsibilities can help identify areas that may be automated, enabling individuals to find ways to provide unique value beyond what AI can offer.

However, it is crucial to evaluate predictions about the future of work by examining historical facts and past failed forecasts. As far back as 1843, Ada Lovelace recognized the potential of machines like Charles Babbage's Analytical Engine to enhance human intelligence and perform creative tasks, rather than completely replacing it.

The introduction of early electronic computers in the 1940s led to forecasts of job displacement among highly skilled workers. Alan Turing estimated that one computer could replace the work of 10,000 human "computers." However, the reality turned out to be more nuanced, as computers created new job categories alongside automation.

Past failed predictions can offer insights into why they did not materialize. In 1976, a report by the Stanford Research Institute predicted a future office where managers would no longer have personal secretaries but would be supported by a centralized pool of assistants. However, the advent of personal computers resulted in a different outcome.

While concerns about job displacement persist, it is important to approach predictions with caution. Many current occupations will thrive, new ones will emerge, and the way we work will continue to evolve. The future of work is a product of human ingenuity and the possibilities we imagine.

Until next time,

Jesse

👋 Hi, I’m Jesse, a seed-stage VC at Flybridge. If you find a fast-growing niche or paradigm shift in the future of work, reply to this email with 1-2 short, compelling paragraphs. I answer as many emails as humanly possible.